Development and evaluation of system dynamics methods to engage with policy makers on the prevention and control of diabetes in a middle-income region

GA-CDRC Investigators:

Nigel Unwin (Principal Investigator), Ian R. Hambleton, T. Alafia Samuels, Leonor Guariguata

External Investigators:

Cornelia Guell, James Woodcock, Centre for Diet and Activity Research,
University of Cambridge.

Funding Obtained:

105,000 UK pounds, from the MRC-UK/Wellcome Trust/DfID Health Systems
Research call.

Start Date:

January 2016

End Date:

June 2017



Diabetes is a serious and growing health concern in the Caribbean Region. The Caribbean Community, agreed on a broad range of policy objectives in 2007 aimed at curbing the impact of diabetes and other non-communicable diseases. The 2007 Heads of Government NCD summit in the Caribbean helped to initiate the UN High Level Meeting on NCDs in 2011. In response to the UN meeting, the World Health Organization’s Global Action Plan on NCDs (2013-2020) incorporates voluntary targets and indicators to be met by 2025, and lists policy measures to help achieve them. However, the feasibility and effectiveness of many policy measures are unclear, and even if the measures were implemented it is uncertain that the targets would be met. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate system dynamics modelling to engage with and assist policy makers in the Caribbean in setting priorities for diabetes prevention and control. The utility of the whole modeling process will be evaluated from the perspectives of the policy makers. The lessons learnt will be used to refine the process of using systems modeling to help guide policy decision-making and goal setting.

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